This deep dive analysis brings together live verified data from major exchanges and aggregators, technical chart breakdowns, tokenomics, historical narratives, and scenario modeling to help investors, traders, and researchers understand the complexities of Pi’s market behavior.
- Spot Price: $0.268 (as of writing)
- Circulating Supply: ≈ 8.196 billion PI
- Maximum Supply: 100 billion PI
- Market Cap: ≈ $2.2 billion
- All-Time High: ≈ $2.98 (February 26, 2025)
Verification of Market Data
After going through three different data provided by three major Centralized Exchanges (CEX), the data available showed Pi at around $0.2681 against USDT, with a significant candlestick drop in the daily chart.
Cross-checking with other cryptocurrency data aggregators like CoinMarketCap, and CoinGecko confirms this data.
All major data feeds aligned, with Pi quoted between $0.267 and $0.269 and intraday ranges showing lows of about $0.258 and highs near $0.274.
The candlestick structures with long bearish candle with high volume were also visible on TradingView feeds,
confirming a market-wide correction phase. This verification ensures our analysis is grounded in reliable, live-verified facts.
Market Snapshot
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Spot Price | $0.268 |
| 24h High / Low | $0.274 / $0.258 |
| Circulating Supply | ≈ 8.196 billion PI |
| Maximum Supply | 100 billion PI |
| Market Capitalization | $2.2 billion |
| All-Time High (ATH) | $2.98 (26 Feb 2025) |
| Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) | $26–27 billion |
Data sources: CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Bitget, TradingView
Technical Analysis
Daily Chart Overview
The daily chart reveals a pronounced bearish candle, reflecting significant sell-offs after Pi’s earlier appreciation.
A long wick beneath the candle suggests that while selling was intense, some buyers stepped in to absorb excess supply. The overall price action now rests in a consolidation band between $0.22 and $0.30.
Moving Averages
The chart overlays MA(5), MA(10), and MA(20). The downward crossover of MA(5) and MA(10) beneath MA(20) signifies bearish momentum. For traders, this typically warns against long entries until a reversal or breakout is confirmed.
Volume Profile
Volume spiked heavily during the drop, which validates that the move wasn’t a thin-market anomaly. Instead, it was driven by broad participation. Subsequent candles show volume subsiding but still elevated compared to earlier trading, a signal of ongoing caution and watchfulness.
Support and Resistance Levels
- Resistance: $0.285 – $0.30 zone
- Support: $0.258 – $0.260, with psychological floor at $0.25
- Deeper Support: $0.22 – $0.24 (historic lows)
Technical Scenarios
Three technical pathways exist:
- Bull Reversal: Price reclaims $0.30 with sustained volume, short-term MAs turn upward.
- Consolidation: Range-bound between $0.22 and $0.30 awaiting catalysts.
- Further Downside: Break below $0.22 opens room to retest lower levels.
Tokenomics & Supply Dynamics
Circulating vs Maximum Supply
Pi’s circulating supply is about 8.19B only 8% of its total max supply of 100B. This imbalance raises concerns
about future inflation as new tokens enter circulation. Unless demand grows proportionally,
the additional supply could dilute existing holders’ stakes.
Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV)
At a spot price of $0.268, Pi’s FDV sits near $27B.
This valuation is significantly higher than the circulating market cap (~$2.2B), underscoring the risks of dilution as tokens unlock.
Unlock Schedules
Migration from locked balances to tradeable tokens is ongoing. If large tranches enter markets abruptly,
the impact on price can be severe. Token unlock events must be monitored closely by investors.
Historical Narrative
Early Hype
Pi’s appeal began with its unique mining mechanism via smartphones,
enabling millions to join without specialized hardware. This inclusivity built a viral community
that eventually spurred exchange listings and speculative demand.
ATH Peak
On February 26, 2025, Pi hit an all-time high of $2.98. This blow-off top was fueled by FOMO,
new listings, and speculative bets. With such a thin circulating supply at the time,
price escalations were magnified.
Correction Phase
Post-ATH, Pi entered a prolonged correction. Multiple factors contributed — profit-taking by early adopters,
KYC bottlenecks slowing migration, and broader altcoin weakness. By September 2025,
prices consolidated under $0.30.
Drivers of the Decline
- Profit Taking: Early holders securing gains.
- Liquidity Mismatch: Thin order books caused sharp drops from large sell orders.
- Unlock Schedules: Gradual release of locked tokens added sell pressure.
- Utility Gap: Community hype outpaced actual use-case adoption.
- Macro Crypto Weakness: Bitcoin or Ethereum downturns dragged altcoins like Pi lower.
Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Description | Price Range | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stabilization | Pi consolidates with controlled unlocks and steady adoption. | $0.22 – $0.50 | 40% |
| Renewed Bull Run | Major partnerships, liquidity growth, and adoption drive recovery. | $0.50 – $1+ | 20% |
| Bear Prolongation | Unlocks outpace demand, exchange liquidity shrinks. | $0.10 – $0.20 | 40% |
Guidance for Stakeholders
For Traders
Range trade between $0.22 – $0.30, respect stop-losses, and watch MA crossovers with volume confirmation.
For Long-Term Holders
Monitor unlock calendars, roadmap execution, and DApp ecosystem growth. Consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA).
For New Investors
Treat Pi as a speculative play. Diversify, position-size carefully, and verify on-chain activity before entering.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Pi a pump-and-dump?
A: Not inherently, but its thin float and heavy hype create risks typical of pump-and-dump dynamics.
Q: Will Pi recover to its ATH?
A: Possible only if utility adoption and liquidity grow. Otherwise, ATH re-tests remain unlikely in the near-term.
Q: What should I watch next?
A: Unlock announcements, exchange liquidity data, and ecosystem utility metrics.
Conclusion
Pi Network remains one of the most polarizing cryptocurrencies of 2025.
Its community size and brand recognition are unmatched for a relatively new project,
but tokenomics challenges, utility gaps, and speculative volatility pose real risks.
Whether Pi can transition from a hype-driven narrative to a utility-driven economy
will determine if its price stabilizes and grows or continues to decline under supply pressures.
