Crypto Market Alert: Pi Network Faces Selling Pressure Ahead of 136M Token Unlock

Pi Network (PI) edged nearly 2% lower on Monday as technical indicators signaled a bearish bias and the market prepared for an October token unlock of 136 million PI. This report examines the technical setup, tokenomics, social sentiment and likely scenarios for traders and long-term holders.

Pi Network’s Price Faces Renewed Pressure

The cryptocurrency market has entered another cautious week, and Pi Network (PI) is no exception. On Monday, PI’s price declined by nearly 2%, extending its downward momentum as both technical indicators and fundamental developments weigh on market sentiment.

With the Pi Network token reversing from a pivot point at $0.2696 and forming a declining wedge pattern on the 4-hour chart, analysts warn of possible retests of recent lows. Adding to these technical pressures, Pi Network is preparing for a token unlock of 136 million PI in October an event that could introduce fresh supply and increase downside risks.

This article provides a deep-dive analysis of PI’s current price outlook, exploring technical patterns, fundamental dynamics, tokenomics, and the broader state of the cryptocurrency market.

Technical Analysis: PI Forms a Declining Wedge Pattern

Key Levels to Watch

Pi Network’s latest price movements have established a declining wedge, a chart pattern that often signals a bearish continuation phase. The reversal from $0.2696 has strengthened short-term bearish sentiment, with the next immediate support resting at $0.2565, Thursday’s low.

If bears maintain control and sweep below this support, analysts highlight the $0.2000 round figure as the next critical level. This price level is psychologically significant, as round figures often act as magnets for traders and can become key support zones.

RSI Suggests Waning Selling Pressure

Despite the bearish wedge, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits at 42, above the oversold region (30). This suggests that while sellers are still active, their momentum may be fading. An RSI in the low 40s often indicates consolidation rather than aggressive selling, opening the possibility for stabilization.

MACD Offers a Glimmer of Hope

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator and its signal line are trending upward, inching closer to the zero line. This development indicates that the strength of bearish momentum is gradually declining. If the MACD crosses above the zero line, it could provide an early signal of a bullish reversal — although the wedge pattern still dominates the short-term outlook.

The October Token Unlock: A Fundamental Risk Factor

136 Million Tokens Entering Circulation

According to PiScan data, Pi Network is set to unlock 136 million PI tokens in October. This represents slightly over 1% of the circulating supply, which may not seem large in absolute terms but can have an outsized impact during a period of weak demand and declining social interest.

Token unlocks increase circulating supply, potentially creating selling pressure if market participants liquidate their newly accessible assets. In healthy markets with strong demand, unlocks can be absorbed with minimal price impact. However, in risk-off environments, such events often exacerbate sell-offs.

Why Token Unlocks Matter in Crypto

Tokenomics plays a crucial role in cryptocurrency valuations. Unlike traditional stocks, many crypto assets follow vesting schedules where large portions of tokens are periodically unlocked. These events are closely watched by traders, as sudden increases in supply can undermine price stability.

For Pi Network, the October unlock comes at a time when overall crypto sentiment is fragile, magnifying the potential impact on price dynamics.

Social Interest and Market Sentiment

Decline in Community Engagement

One of Pi Network’s unique features has been its large community base, with millions of participants mining PI via mobile applications. However, recent analytics suggest that social media mentions and community activity have declined, reflecting reduced investor enthusiasm.

*PI price action on the 4-hour chart with the declining wedge pattern, pivot point at $0.2696, support at $0.2565, and the key round figure at $0.2000*

Crypto markets are highly sensitive to social sentiment, particularly for projects like Pi that emphasize grassroots adoption. A decline in engagement often translates into lower demand, which can amplify the effects of technical and fundamental headwinds.

Broader Market Risk-Off Mode

Pi’s struggles are also a reflection of the broader cryptocurrency environment. The market as a whole has shifted into risk-off mode, with investors moving away from speculative assets amid macroeconomic uncertainty, rising interest rates, and regulatory developments.

Comparisons with Broader Crypto Market

Bitcoin and Ethereum as Benchmarks

Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) often serve as benchmarks for altcoins like Pi. Currently, both assets are experiencing sideways trading with occasional dips, signaling uncertainty. When BTC and ETH stagnate, liquidity for smaller altcoins often declines, increasing their vulnerability to volatility.

Pi Network’s price decline therefore reflects both project-specific issues and broader market weakness. Without strong upward momentum from Bitcoin and Ethereum, altcoins face difficulties attracting sustained buying pressure.

Other Altcoins and Token Unlock Patterns

Pi is not the only project facing supply-side risks. Several high-profile altcoins have experienced sharp declines following large token unlocks in recent years. Historical patterns suggest that unless investor demand is strong enough to absorb new supply, prices often face immediate downward adjustments.

Potential Scenarios for Pi Network

Bearish Case

Price breaks below $0.2565 support.
Selling accelerates ahead of October’s token unlock.
PI tests the $0.2000 round figure, with possible temporary overshoot to lower levels.

Neutral Case

Price consolidates between $0.2565 and $0.2696.
RSI and MACD stabilize, suggesting sideways movement.
Token unlock is absorbed by the market without extreme volatility.

Bullish Case

Price holds above $0.2565 and rebounds toward the pivot point at $0.2696.
RSI climbs toward neutral territory (50–55), showing growing demand.
MACD crosses above zero, signaling bullish momentum.
Strong community engagement returns, offsetting supply concerns.

Investor Outlook: Short-Term vs Long-Term

Short-Term Traders

For traders focusing on short-term price movements, the critical level to watch remains $0.2565. A breakdown below this level may trigger sharp declines, while a rebound could offer quick upside opportunities toward $0.2696. However, volatility is likely to increase as October’s unlock approaches.

Long-Term Holders

For long-term participants, the upcoming supply increase represents both a challenge and a test of market resilience. If Pi Network’s community and ecosystem can absorb the additional tokens without significant damage to price stability, it could reinforce the project’s long-term viability. On the other hand, failure to manage supply effectively could undermine investor confidence.

Conclusion

Pi Network finds itself at a crossroads. The technical charts point to a bearish setup, with the potential for further declines if support levels break. Meanwhile, the fundamental reality of a 136 million token unlock in October adds a layer of uncertainty to the market outlook.

Yet, not all indicators are negative. RSI and MACD suggest that selling pressure may be easing, and any stabilization above critical support levels could allow PI to build a base for recovery. Moreover, Pi’s large community and unique mobile mining model remain strengths that could support long-term growth if market conditions improve.

For now, caution remains the watchword. Both traders and long-term participants will be closely monitoring $0.2565 support, the $0.2000 round figure, and the October token unlock as key catalysts shaping Pi Network’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.